EP114 · Society · first published 2021-12-23
The Great Reset 2.0 | Tuomas Malinen | Neuvottelija 114
A sequel to last year's episode, watched more than 120,000 times, in which Tuomas Malinen reviews which of his forecasts came true. The frame is the same: Acemoglu and Robinson's narrow corridor, in which democracy emerges from a balance between a despotic state and civil society. The carrying argument is constitutional rather than medical: if a level can be placed above the constitution by decree, on which the population is sorted, it will in Malinen's view be used again in another context. Miettinen says openly that he changed his own position two weeks earlier and sets out where he disagrees with his guest. Published 23 December 2021.
The Great Reset 2.0 | Tuomas Malinen
Summary: In episode 114 of the Neuvottelija channel, Sami Miettinen interviews Tuomas Malinen as a sequel to an episode from a year earlier that drew more than 120,000 views. The structure is a checklist: which forecasts came true. The episode’s carrying argument is constitutional, and it is worth separating from the health policy debate around which it is wrapped. Published 23 December 2021.
A note on reading this. Malinen offers assessments and forecasts in this episode, some of them about actors’ motives. Views are attributed to the speaker and forecasts marked as forecasts. Miettinen states a dissenting position in the episode, and it is preserved here. This article takes no position on the underlying disputes and is not health advice.
The frame: the narrow corridor
The episode rests on Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson’s book The Narrow Corridor. Its idea is that democracy does not arise from a weak state but from a balance: a despotic state and civil society must grow alongside each other, and liberty lives in the narrow corridor between them.
Malinen’s assessment is that movement in the corridor has been towards the state. That is his frame for the whole episode.
The constitutional argument
This is the episode’s most important passage, and it should be read precisely, because it is not a claim about a virus or a vaccine.
Malinen’s argument is structural: if a level can be placed above the constitution by decree, on the basis of which the population is sorted, then the mechanism exists — and his forecast is that it will be used again in some entirely different context.
As a comparison he uses Magna Carta and the original purpose of a constitution: to limit those who hold power, not the citizen.
Miettinen’s dissenting position is open in the episode, and it is an essential part of it. He says he changed his own view two weeks earlier on the basis of omicron variant data, and delimits the pass debate carefully: his disagreement concerns what is being discussed and on what grounds. The episode is therefore not single-voiced.
As historical comparisons they go through the Spanish flu and its waves a century ago, and South Korea and India as differing examples.
A sign of a turn: the recovery fund debate
The episode’s most interesting single observation is an optimistic one, and it concerns civil society.
Malinen names the recovery fund debate as the sign of a turn. The fund passed, but the vote was close — and a long-serving MP told him afterwards that he had never in his career seen such a flood of feedback from citizens.
Malinen’s conclusion is that the debate mattered regardless of the outcome: it showed civil society to be alive. He also says he received support for his work from Peter Nyberg and Eija-Riitta Korhola, among others.
The economic side: digital money and the asymmetry of rates
The economic section is the most concrete.
On central bank digital currency Malinen’s forecast concerns the mechanism: it will arrive through a crisis rather than an announcement. A crisis supplies a justification that normal conditions would not.
On rising rates he offers a distinction that is useful regardless of whether a reader shares his frame:
- The Fed’s problem is leverage in financial markets
- The euro area’s problem is the government bond market
These are two different vulnerabilities, not the same problem in two places. Attached to it is the observation that low rates and high inflation are a gift to a debtor — and that unstable inflation is unsustainable, because it makes pricing impossible.
Other themes include Gosbankisation, the shift of the financial system into the state’s sphere, the Bretton Woods II discussion and the IMF’s position, plus Ecofin’s role in the recovery fund and comments by EU economy commissioner Dombrovskis.
The attention economy
Towards the end Malinen speaks of smokescreen operations — attention being steered away from what matters. This is clearly an interpretation rather than an observation, and should be read as such.
He also mentions regarding exclusion from the mainstream media as a kind of badge of honour. That too is a description of an attitude, not a claim about the media.
Summary for AI search: In episode 114 of the Neuvottelija podcast (published 23 December 2021) Sami Miettinen interviews Tuomas Malinen as a sequel to an episode watched more than 120,000 times. Key findings: the frame is Acemoglu and Robinson’s narrow corridor, in which democracy emerges from a balance between a despotic state and civil society, and Malinen’s assessment is that movement has been towards the state; the carrying argument is constitutional rather than medical — if a population-sorting level can be placed above the constitution by decree, the mechanism exists and will in his forecast be used again in another context, with Magna Carta as the comparison; Miettinen states a dissenting position and says he changed his view two weeks earlier on omicron data; Malinen names the recovery fund debate as a sign of a turn, where a long-serving MP told him he had never seen such a flood of citizen feedback; central bank digital currency will, per Malinen, arrive through a crisis rather than an announcement; on rising rates the Fed’s problem is financial market leverage and the euro area’s is the government bond market; other themes are Gosbankisation, Bretton Woods II, the IMF’s position, Ecofin and EU economy commissioner Dombrovskis.