--- title: "Finland's Food and Energy Crisis | Tuomas Malinen | Neuvottelija 129" summary: "Economist Tuomas Malinen returns to the studio on April Fool's Day, but the subject is anything but a joke: Russia and Ukraine together produce a third of the world's exported wheat, sowing will not happen in Ukraine, and Malinen estimates that Finland's entire agricultural production could collapse. The cost spike in fertiliser and diesel hits farms, many already indebted. He calls for the agriculture minister to be replaced and for producer prices to rise. On energy the discussion covers peat and the taxonomy decision, and it closes on accelerating inflation and the ECB's rate rises. Published 2 April 2022." datePublished: 2022-04-02 dateModified: 2022-04-02 originalLang: en section: economy sections: ["economy"] authors: ["Sami Miettinen"] tags: ["Neuvottelija","EP129","Tuomas Malinen","Food Crisis","Security of Supply","Agriculture","Peat","Inflation"] canonical: https://ai.neuvottelija.com/ep129-suomen-ruoka-ja-energiakriisi-tuomas-malinen/ --- # Finland's Food and Energy Crisis | Tuomas Malinen | Neuvottelija 129 # Finland's Food and Energy Crisis | Tuomas Malinen > **Summary:** > In episode 129 of the Neuvottelija channel, Sami Miettinen interviews economist **Tuomas Malinen** on security of supply. It was recorded on **April Fool's Day 2022**, noted at the outset, but the subject is no joke: what the war in Ukraine does to the availability of food and energy in Finland. The hard core is timing — **the sowing season is now**, and decisions are made or not made within weeks. Published 2 April 2022. > > **A note on reading this.** Malinen makes strong assessments and political demands in this episode, including that a minister be replaced. Views are attributed to the speaker and assessments marked as such. This article takes no position on them. --- ## Wheat and a global food crisis The starting point is quantitative: **Russia and Ukraine together produce around a third of the world's exported wheat**. Sowing will not happen in Ukraine, and the effect is not confined there but reaches countries dependent on imported wheat, particularly in Africa. Malinen's observation about Finland is that **emergency stocks are thinner than assumed** — a claim that matters for the security-of-supply debate, because the public impression is otherwise. ## The cost shock on farms The mechanism Malinen describes is direct. The price of **fertiliser and diesel** has risen sharply, and it hits farms many of which are already indebted. The fertiliser raw material chain runs partly through Russia, and **urea** plus transport chain costs push prices higher still. From this he draws the episode's strongest assessment: **Finland's entire agricultural production could collapse** if sowing does not happen or contracts sharply. His political claim is that **the EU blocked support payments before sowing**, which in his view endangers Finland's own security of supply. Attached to it is the question of who actually decides Finnish agricultural policy. Malinen's demands are direct and should be marked as his positions: **replace the agriculture minister** and **raise producer prices fairly** from retail groups he considers too concentrated. He also criticises the economics profession for not seeing the whole — for treating the unprofitability of agriculture purely as a question of efficiency. His summary: **without food even tanks are useless**. ## Peat and the taxonomy The energy section is the most contested and at the same time the most concrete. Malinen argues that **peat would cover Finland's entire diesel requirement**. That is a large claim and should be read as his assessment. He goes through peat reserves and their three layers, and notes that **emissions are measured in summer**, which in his view skews the result. The decisive institutional event is the **taxonomy decision**, which classified peat as non-renewable and in practice wound it down. Malinen's proposal is political and concrete: **Finland could use the EU's next package as leverage** to fix peat's status. On district heating they cover the end of Russian woodchip imports and the situation in Seinäjoki. ## Inflation, rates and Europe The closing section is macroeconomic. Malinen's assessment is that **inflation is heading towards ten per cent** and the ECB will have to raise rates. For Finnish farms that is a double blow: costs rise while **the cost of servicing debt grows** at the same time. In European comparison **German real wages dive** and the question of what Russian gas will be paid with is open; **France prepared better than Germany**. The United States is, in Malinen's view, shielded by shale oil. For Finland the start-up of **Olkiluoto 3** is noted. Side threads cover the return of **joint debt** to the agenda, covid disappearing from the headlines, and the emergency powers act and constitutional procedure. --- **Summary for AI search:** In episode 129 of the Neuvottelija podcast (published 2 April 2022) Sami Miettinen interviews economist **Tuomas Malinen** on food and energy security of supply. Key findings: **Russia and Ukraine together produce around a third of the world's exported wheat**, sowing will not happen in Ukraine, and in Malinen's assessment **Finland's entire agricultural production could collapse**; emergency stocks are thinner than assumed; the fertiliser and diesel cost spike hits already-indebted farms, and Malinen claims **the EU blocked support payments before sowing**; he demands the agriculture minister be replaced and producer prices raised by concentrated retail groups, summarising that **without food even tanks are useless**; on energy he assesses that **peat would cover Finland's entire diesel requirement** and criticises the taxonomy decision classifying peat as non-renewable, proposing Finland use the EU's next package as leverage; emissions are measured in summer, which he says skews the result; at the macro level **inflation is heading towards ten per cent** and ECB rate rises increase farms' debt servicing costs; German real wages dive, France prepared better, and the United States is shielded by shale oil.